NEWS ANALYSIS
K Kabilan

Lunas Indian voters' swing an indicator

6pm, THURS: All Indian voters in Lunas will definitely vote for Barisan Nasional (BN), so pronounced MIC president Samy Vellu just a few days prior to the Lunas by-election.

His confidence on the 5,108 Indian votes for MIC candidate S Anthonysamy was sky-high as he believed that he had sufficiently influenced the Indian voters in his door-to-door rounds.

Samy Vellu even went on to claim that he will never return to Kuala Lumpur if his influence in getting Anthonysamy elected failed. He stayed in Lunas for about 10 days to canvass support.

How wrong Samy Vellu turned out to be.

For once he had misjudged the feelings of not only the Indian voters in Lunas but also those of the other voters.

The total number of voters in Lunas was 26,746, out of which 11,581 were Malays (43 percent), 9,898 Chinese (37 percent), 5,108 Indians (19 percent) and 161 others (five percent).

Reports suggest that Keadilan candidate Saifuddin Nasution Ismail's victory was immensely helped by the 25 percent of Indian votes that he received.

This means that about 1,300 votes of the 10,511 votes that catapulted Saifuddin to the Kedah state assembly came from Indians.

The big question is how could Samy Vellu, who is also the Works Minister, have believed that by merely paving and constructing new roads, Lunas residents would automatically deliver him the votes?

New winds of change

It is no point blaming him though. The Indian voters in the past have been fervent supporters of BN and Samy Vellu was correct when he said they will vote for the person he chooses.

Just look at Teluk Kemang or any other elections or by-elections.

Samy Vellu would have never dreamt that his community will fail him. His convictions were too strong that he failed to see the signs of protests coming from the community.

No doubt, most of the Indian voters that chose Saifuddin came from the educated group and Samy Vellu must be thankful that at least the voters from the big estates in Lunas delivered for him.

But if he does not initiate changes for the community, another by-election could see a bigger swing from this community to the Opposition camp.

The swing of Indian voters was surprising and unexpected, as unlike the Chinese voters, the Indians did not seem to have any problems brewing openly.

Whatever problems the Indian community has or had, have always been conveniently glossed over by MIC leaders who seemingly have more important things to attend to.

Clearer dissent

The voices of dissent from the Indian community are beginning to become clearer and louder. No amount of money for Tamil schools, especially during election time, or surfacing of roads is going to help buy votes anymore.

The community is crying out for a better standard of leaving, especially in the rural areas, and the swing in Indian votes in the Lunas by-election is a clear indication of the community's frustration.

They fear becoming a new underclass in the country which is set to become a First World economy in 19 years to come.

Despite earlier claims of Indians in Lunas being dissatisfied with the scuffle between DAP and Keadilan over the choice of the Barisan Alternatif (BA) candidate and that the community has been marginalised by the eventual choice of Saifuddin, the bigger picture shows something else.

It shows the hope of the community for change and a better standard of living. It also sounds out to the government that it's time this community is taken care of too.

The cross-over of the Indian voters is not, however, the single factor that has caused embarrassment to Samy Vellu and the BN government.

Critical swing

Saifuddin was also the beneficiary of a critical swing of Chinese voters.

They have proven to be the catalyst in an Opposition victory in a BN home turf for the first time in more than 40 years.

The Chinese make up about 37 percent (9,896) of the total number of voters and it has been reported that about 60 percent of them voted for Keadilan.

As DAP chairman Lim Kit Siang said, the Chinese has sent out a loud signal to the government to drop the Vision School project and to show their displeasure of being termed "extremists", "terrorists" and "ingrates".

Their votes also conveyed the message of almost five million Chinese voters nationwide, said Lim in a statement commenting on Saifuddin's victory.

Despite repeated efforts by the government to explain that the Chinese schools will not be converted into the new Vision Schools, the community is still suspicious of the government's plans.

Promised projects

The swing of votes by these two communities won the election for Saifuddin. He and the BA should not forget that.

These voters have taken a big gamble by voting for Saifuddin. They have turned their backs to various government pledges which included development projects worth RM21 million.

From the date of nomination, Nov 21, until polling day, Nov 29, 121 projects in improving roads and drains have been undertaken at mosques and schools while temples have been upgraded.

The Lunas town market has been rebuilt and various other projects have been promised.

On the other hand, Saifuddin has promised to learn Mandarin if he was elected and to be a very vocal voice in the state assembly.

No doubt part of 11,581 Malay votes were also cast in Saifuddin's favour but it must be remembered that the awareness of seeking for change has been in the Malay community for some time now.

The fact that the same awareness is seeping into the minds of the Chinese and the Indians, especially in rural areas like Lunas, is thought-provoking.

The total number of voters in Lunas are 26,746, up 2,265 from the last general election. Also, the voter turnout for the by-election improved from 70 percent to 77.58 percent.

The increase in the number of voters is seen in the increase of votes received by the two main candidates. The ruling party managed to garner more votes than in the previous election but in spite of this still lost to the Opposition.

The majority has also been sliced from 4,700 in BN's favour to 530 in BA's favour now, a clear indication of new grounds the Opposition has gained in the last 12 months and in, of all places, Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's home state.