Tuesday, 25-Nov-2003 1:01 AM

Umno’s snowball’s chance in hell at winning back Terengganu

Was the Islamic Party of Malaysia’s (PAS) recent launch of the Islamic State Document (ISD) a masterstroke or one of its biggest blunders? Of course, if you speak to the Islamists, they will tell you there is really no choice in the matter. This is what God had decreed so it has to be done even if it means the death of the party.

But PAS is a political party, not a missionary movement, so let us leave out the theological arguments and get down to the political implication of PAS’ move. First of all, it is true that PAS has no choice in the matter. Since 1951, when the Islamists in Umno broke away from the party that had been in existence for five years and formed their own party -- then called the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PMIP) -- due to Umno’s reluctance to implement the proposed Islamic programmes, it had always used the Islamic platform. Its promise to the voters these last 52 years is that it would implement an Islamic system of government with Islamic laws if it ever came to power.

When it did come to power in the state of Kelantan in 1990, it did just that. Of course its attempt to implement Islamic laws in Kelantan was thwarted by the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) that held a two-thirds majority in Parliament. But PAS had done it duty, both to Islam as well as to the voters. The fact it could not proceed beyond the mere proposal stage was no fault of its own since it did not possess the two-thirds majority in Parliament required to make the plan successful. No one blamed PAS for it. In fact, Umno, the dominant partner in the ruling BN instead was blamed for being a hindrance to Islam. If at all, it further strengthened PAS’ position with the voters and just proved what PAS had alleged all along, that Umno is an enemy of Islam.

In politics you use any and every weapon you can get your hands on, and anyone who says the ends should not justify the means is certainly a naïve armchair politician who does not understand what real politics is all about. In politics, the ends always justify the means, unless you wish to be a failure.

Then, in 1999, three elections later, the opposition coalition, Barisan Alternatif (BA), won the second state, Terengganu (while still retaining Kelantan), with PAS leading the government. PAS was in no hurry to push through its Islamic programmes for Terengganu though, for it knew the ruling BN, which still controlled a two-thirds majority in Parliament, would block it just like it did in Kelantan nine years earlier. No one would blame PAS for dragging its feet. They knew PAS would not succeed anyway as Umno would, again, block it.

But then, two things happened. First, the then Malaysian Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, goaded PAS and asked it where were its Islamic programmes it had promised the voters? PAS is a hypocrite, said Dr Mahathir. It makes empty promises to the voters before the elections, then does not deliver its promise when it wins the state. Before PAS could respond, Dr Mahathir very cleverly stole the thunder from PAS by announcing, on 29 September 2001, that Malaysia is already an Islamic state, so there is no requirement for a party like PAS.

PAS was caught in a bind. Dr Mahathir had outmanoeuvred it. PAS now needed to do something, and fast. So, over the last two years, it worked on its ISD. Now that PAS has launched its ISD, it has stolen back the winning hand. Now Umno would have to either block PAS’ move and prove it is merely playing lip service to Islam, or it keeps quiet and gives PAS the edge. Umno really does not know which way to move now. It blocks PAS, it is dead, and it does nothing, it is also dead. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

But was PAS’ move a brilliant political strategy or was it political suicide? FAC News spoke to some locals from Terengganu, those neither aligned to PAS nor Umno, to get their views. It must be remembered that 97% of the Terengganu voters are Malays so what the Malays think is what counts. And, out of this, only 5% are from the upper- and upper-middle class. The majority are fishermen, farmers, carpenters, labourers, and so on, basically village folks.

The upper- and upper-middle-class are definitely quite unhappy that Terengganu has seen little development since Umno withdrew the 5% oil royalty that the state was entitled to. However, while they may be unhappy, they do not blame PAS for it, they blame Umno. Those, who, in the past, had no real love for PAS are now in fact quite sympathetic to the party because of what they see as Umno’s dirty tactics in trying to bring the state to its knees.

But PAS is far from defeated. The oil royalty used to be about RM800 to RM900 million a year. One-third of that went into paying state civil service salaries. Without this oil royalty, PAS has turned to other sources of revenue, basically timber. Terengganu’s forest is larger than Singapore Island so there are definitely ample reserves of timber. And, with this timber revenue, the state is able to pay its salary bill.

Of course this is a great loss to the nation, not to mention a possible ecological problem in time to come. However, if the nation is worried about the loss of its timber resource or the possible ecological problem, then it should give back Terengganu its oil royalty. The Federal Government left PAS with very little choice and it is the nation that is going to pay for this folly.

But the timber revenue is only enough to pay the salary bill. There are not enough funds left for development. The Terengganu people do not mind though. They already have roads, bridges, schools, hospitals and mosques. What more do they need? Granted there are no more construction jobs. But these construction jobs did not benefit the man-on-the-street or village folk anyway. Those who benefited and got rich from these construction jobs were the Umno cronies. With or without construction jobs, the peoples’ lives remain the same.

The farmers were still farmers and the fishermen still fishermen in the almost 30 years that the state was under Umno rule. And the fishermen are still fishermen and farmers still farmers today. Even if Umno comes back to power the next election, their lives would still remain the same, there would be no change. These people do not see their lives improving whoever comes to power. However, with PAS in power, Islam is given prominence. With Umno back in power, Islam will be compromised.

The man-on-the-street is not frightened of Islamic law even if PAS manages to implement it. Their argument is: only criminals should fear Islamic law and they are not criminals. They also do not see Islamic law as a choice but an obligation. And, once PAS implements Islamic law, they would have fulfilled their religious obligation. Life on earth is not the final objective. Life on earth is to prepare for the afterlife. And that is what they are doing in supporting Islamic law.

Umno is trying to use economic arguments in winning the hearts and minds of the Terengganu people. But economy is not an issue to these people, religion is. Terengganu has earned billions of Ringgit since 1978 when oil was first discovered. But, in all that time, while Terengganu was the second richest state, its people were the second poorest. Maybe today, without the oil revenue, Terengganu is now the second poorest state. But did the people’s life change when Terengganu was the second richest state? The people do not see any difference whether Terengganu remains the second poorest state or reverts to the second richest. In the absence of wealth, the people turn to religion.

Faith is what it is all about and faith is so intangible, sometimes even irrational. Even Dr Mahathir lamented that faith is an “enemy” that is difficult to defeat. And Umno is trying to fight faith with money, money the people do not see coming if Umno is back in control as what happened in the 30 years it was in control.

Umno mismanaged the state’s revenue and those who got rich were those close to the powers-that-be. The people could see this, and they can see this happening again if Umno comes home to roost. Umno can no longer use this argument to entice the Terengganu voters. PAS, however, has a better commodity to offer.

Land is very important to the Malays, more important than money. Better they have land and no money, than money and no land. This is the Malay mentality, especially rural Malays. So PAS gives the people the land they ask for. In the 30 years that Umno was ruling the state, land was almost impossible to get. Now, all they need to do is ask, and they get it. And this makes the people very happy.

Then PAS reduces the peoples’ cost of living by reducing taxes. Tolls and quit rent have been abolished. Maybe the money is less, but so are the expenses. And the people are very happy though this means a drop in revenue for the state.

In the last election, the opposition won all eight Parliament seats and 28 of the 32 state seats. The only reason Umno won those four state seats was because of the calibre of its candidates. Most of these candidates have been around longer than Dr Mahathir was Prime Minister. One is suffering from a heart ailment and has indicated he wants to retire. In fact, all should be put to pasture. With these candidates gone, Umno will be hard-pressed to retain those four seats and the opposition might yet make a clean sweep of the state. And even Umno admits this, thought privately.

The opposition will have no problems retaining Kelantan and Terengganu, predominantly Malay-Muslims states. It is the other states where the Malay-Muslim population is about half that will be the problem. But the Democratic Action Party (DAP) made a brilliant move of its own by leaving the opposition coalition to disassociate itself from the PAS Islamic State programme.

In the last election in 1999, DAP won ten Parliament seats. In 1986, it won 24 seats, the best it ever did. With its latest move, DAP may yet improve on its 1999 performance. Whether it can capture back its old glory of 24 seats is left to be seen. But, if the opposition BA can convince the Malays to still support DAP, in spite of its perceived anti-Islamic stand, DAP could still improve on its performance. Maybe the rural Malays might view DAP as the enemy. But the urban Malays, the areas where DAP will be contesting, could be swayed to put their weight behind DAP because, to the urban Malays, it is Reformasi and not Islam that matters.

The National Justice Party (keADILan) is not so fortunate though. While PAS and DAP will contest in the Malay and Chinese majority areas respectively, keADILan will have to contest in the mixed areas whether the Malay/non-Malay population is delicately balanced. Traditionally, these seats have always gone to the ruling party. That is why, in the last election, keADILan won only five Parliament seats against PAS’ 27 and DAP’s ten.

KeADILan is in fact in quite a dilemma. It is sandwiched between PAS’ pro-Islamic stand and DAP’s secular stand. It is hard-pressed to support either. What therefore is its stand? That is something the voters too are asking and something keADILan’s leaders will have to address. And the more the party sidesteps the issue, the more confusing the situation becomes.

KeADILan will have to grab the bull by the horns and openly state its stand. Either way, it is going to suffer. If it adopts a pro-Islamic stand, it will antagonise the non-Muslim voters. If it moves in the opposite direction, then it loses its Malay support. KeADILan is almost like in the same situation as Umno.

KeADILan will have to decide which is the lesser of the two evils and hold its ground. Unlike PAS and DAP, keADILan does not have the luxury of the ideal situation. It can only choose one that does the least damage. But damage, nevertheless, will be done. If keADILan hopes to become everybody’s darling, there is no such thing. It has to be prepared to make both friends and enemies. It must now ask itself, which stand will make more friends than enemies and adopt that position. If keADILan wants to oppose PAS’ Islamic state, well and fine, then be prepared to lose the Malay support. But if that party supports PAS’ Islamic state, then its Malay base will remain intact to the determent of the non-Malay support.

I do not envy the keADILan President, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, Anwar Ibrahim’s wife, who will have to come to terms with this dilemma. But the consolation would be, keADILan’s loss will be PAS’ and DAP’s gain. KeADILan will be the fall guy, but the two east coast states will remain under opposition control with maybe increased opposition representation in Parliament.